Uang Kembalian iklim: Kenya untuk kehilangan USD500 juta harga tanaman pangan-tanaman pangan

Laporan daerah di atas Uang Kembalian Iklim dilepaskan minggu lalu oleh Working Group II Inter Governmental Panel di atas Uang Kembalian Iklim (IPCC) menyingkap bahwa Kenya akan mengalami kehilangan tanaman pangan-tanaman pangan pantainya dengan kenaikan di permukaan laut karena uang kembalian iklim.

Untuk dengan keras ditimpa ialah mangoes, kacang mende dan kelapa, dan kehilangan tanaman pangan ini bisa hampir Sh3.5 milyar untuk satu kenaikan derajat laut meteran.

Menurut Achim Steiner, Direktur Pelaksana Program Lingkungan PBB yang berbasis di Nairobi (UNEP), yang juga ko-mendirikan IPCC, laporan menekankan biaya dahsyat yang menghadap ke Afrika akibat uang kembalian iklim yang tak diperiksa -- biaya yang benar-benar tak dapat diterima.

"Adalah benua dengan tanggung jawab sedikit pun untuk ganti iklim dan masih adalah dengan jahat benua dengan kebanyakan di risiko jika gas rumah hijau tidak ditusuk hati"," tambah dia.

IPCC Report negara bagian "permukaan laut bangkit khususnya di Pantai Afrika Timur akan menambah banjir dengan rekening adaptasi naik ke 10 persen dari Produk Domestik yang Kasar (GDP)."

Lebih lanjut meramalkan bahwa gandum mungkin hilang dari Afrika oleh tahun 2080s dengan orang Mesir soya produksi buncis yang mampir ke 30 persen 2050.

"Sampai 30 persen dari sawah Guinea bisa di risiko dari banjir menjelang 2050." Satu kenaikan derajat laut meteran akan meminta Eritrea menaksir USD250 juta akibat submergence prasarana di kota pelabuhan Massawa,’’ It menambahkan.

Laporan Penilai keempat ini menekankan menanam keyakinan ilmiah di model iklim, tidak paling tidak di bidang malaria di mana ditaksir bahwa 80 juta orang lagi akan di risiko.

Laporan mengatakan, kenaikan suhu sedang bisa menuju ke air terjun di aliran air di beberapa sistem sungai setara di volume ke satu bendungan besar yang hilang secara tahunan.

Ujung laporan ke luar itu diteruskan bertambah di gas rumah kaca akan nanti pada abad ini menginap kepada 1,8 milyar orang di Afrika di risiko tekanan air. Lebih lanjut menunjukkan bahwa uang kembalian iklim mungkin memperburuk kekurangan air dengan nomor tepat orang di risiko tergantung atas faktor termasuk pertumbuhan penduduk.

IPCC Report yang menekankan risiko sampai pertanian Africa’s, prasarana dan margasatwa lebih lanjut menunjukkan kepariwisataan itu, banyak di antaranya berdasarkan alam juga mungkin ditepuk dengan keras dengan 25 - 40 persen dari spesies hewani di taman nasional di Sub- Sahara Africa khususnya Zebra mulai menjadi dibahayakan.

Laporan lebih lanjut menunjukkan itu kersang dan negeri semi-kersang mungkin menambah sampai 8 persen dengan dampak penting untuk mata pencaharian.

Thus Africa, kata laporan IPCC, mengharuskan bantuan mendesak menyesuaikan diri ke uang kembalian iklim dan tindakan oleh industrialized negara untuk mengantarkan luka dalam di emisi jika benua dan orangnya akan hidup terus abad berikutnya. Pembasmian kemiskinan dan menjumpai dan mengurusi Gawang Perkembangan Milenium (MDGs) di samping bangsa Afrika akan menjadi angan-angan mustahil.

Although much of Southern and Central Africa will become unsuitable for malaria transmission, the report says, malaria will become a familiar disease in densely populated areas in most of African countries among them Zimbabwe.

Releasing the report last week at a Nairobi hotel, the United Nations Environmental Programme executive director Achim Steiner said African countries were likely to suffer major catastrophes among them increased flooding, diseases and low agricultural productivity because they were not taking matters of climatic changes seriously.

The report acknowledges that uncertainties in models and future governance make it tough to know how flows in the Nile will be affected.

It further says 1.8 billion of temperature centigrade will rise by 2018 adding that there will be extreme and frequent tropical storms especially in the Southern Indian Ocean.

The director who was flanked by the Senior Programme Officer of an international lobby group Climate Change Adaptation, Antony Nyong said although falls in frost in alphine zones like those in and around Kenyan mountains may make it possible to grow more temperate crops among them apples, peas and berry, cocoanuts and palm oil, such crops will be at risk.

He said there was need for countries to incorporate indigenous knowledge of whether forecasting and other areas to solve the problem of food insecurity and climatic changes adding that African governments should think about disaster reduction not management.

Noting that African countries were not taking matters of climate as a domestic responsibility, Achim observed that because of failing to forecast problems brought up by climatic changes, Kenya spent a whooping Sh450 million to solve the Rift Valley Fever disease which if proper strategies were put in place, only Sh45 million would be spent.

The report notes that sometime between 2080 and the end of the century, average anal rainfall is very likely to decrease alone Africa’s Mediterranean Coast by a fifty with the fall also experienced in the Northern Sahara and the Northern West African Coast.

Declines are also forecast for much of Southern Africa with the extreme West of the region likely to experience falls of as much as 40 percent through June and August.

In contrast, tropical and Eastern Africa may experience increased rainfall of seven percent.

It recommends that a suite option may assist Africa to cope with climate change with some research indicating that these could be cost effective. It says Sea level rise in Coastal countries may cost up to 14 percent of GDP adding that adaptation may cost African countries less-between five to ten percent of the GDP.

The report says adaptation to and coping with climate change is complex and will improve a rage of social and economic factors including education and literacy as well as creative financial and technical solutions including a better understanding and application of indigenous knowledge and traditional coping strategies.

In Sudan for instance, the report says, women are directly responsible for electing sorghum seeds for planting adding that the same women will select a variety of seeds with different characteristics that ensure resistance to a variety of conditions that may emerge in the next growing season.

In semi-arid areas, the report recommends that rain water harvesting can play a role as an irrigation and drinking water source noting that improved early warning systems may improve health care planning.

In terms of malaria which in semi-arid areas is linked with excessive rainfall "it may be possible to give outlooks with lead times of between two to six months", says the report.

In Agriculture, the report says other factors could be investigated to ‘ enhance resilience to shocks such as droughts which include national grain reserves, grain future markets, weather insurance, cash transfers and school feeding programmes among others,’

"The problems facing Africa as a result of unchecked climate change were enormous costs that are wholly unacceptable for the 800 million people alive today and for the generations to come. Africa is the continent with the least responsibility for climate change and yet is perversely the continent at much risk if green house gases are not cut', Achim observed.

He said there was need for the general public to hold their leaders among them MPs accountable for failing to implement strategies that may help them in climate change adaptation.